India to outrun China in 15 years : Deutsche Bank study

India will grow faster than China and most other countries over the next 15 years, said a Deutsche Bank study. The global research arm of the German Bank has said that India will be among the top five growth centres between 2006 and 2020, and clock an annual average GDP growth of 5.5%. As against this Malaysia is expected to grow at 5.4% and China at 5.2%. Thailand and Turkey are among the other emerging markets to achieve a high growth.

Strong population growth, a rapid improvement in human capital and increasing trade with other countries will allow average real GDP growth of more than 5% per year in India, China and Malaysia. With a growth rate of 5.5%, real GDP would double in 13 years. In terms of purchasing power parity, India will replace Japan as the world's largest economy after the US and China by the end of the decade.

This would be possible because of strong population growth of 1.6% per annum which will contribute significantly to the overall population growth. And China would not benefit much because of its slower population growth (0.8%). However, China will record a better per capita increase in GDP at 4.4% as compared to India's 3.9% in the period. India's per capita GDP performance would still be an improvement over its past trend as human capital will improve rapidly and the country will probably continue to open strongly to the rest of the world, the report said.

It said that the per capita GDP would be significantly higher in the long-term, if India were to achieve the current openness level of China. It also expects that global networking will accelerate at a similar pace as in China. The investment ration should rise by more than six percentage points to around 30% between 2005 and 2020, thanks to improved institutional conditions, according to the report.

The bank has arrived at its forecasts through its newly-launched model: Formel-G (Foresight model of evaluating long-term growth). The model combines modern growth theory, state-of-the-art econometric techniques and trend analysis, according to Deutsche Bank Research.

(Ref : "Economic Times" dated April 14, 2005)

Clinical Trials : 20 per cent of all clinical trials conducted globally will be from India

It is estimated that about 20 per cent of all clinical trials conducted globally will be from India by 2010. Over two millions people will be participating in clinical studies in India by that time. Last year, over nine million patients participated in clinical trials globally, Dr Vijai Kumar, president and CEO, Neeman Medical International, said.

India has advantage in contract research due to the availability of manpower, large patient base, good infrastructure, stable legal system, good regulatory practices, adherence to ethical guidelines for human and biomedical research and large number of English speaking professionals, he added.

Indian CROs have a good future as indigenous companies need support from them, besides global companies. The CROs can enter into alliances with their counterparts in other countries and enable Indian pharmaceutical companies to conduct studies in those countries, Dr Kumar said.

(Ref : "Chronicle Pharmabiz" April 14, 2005)